Transcript: LUNAomics Risk Management in Action


Finn 0:41
Hello and welcome to The Ether. Today’s Friday, January 7th 2022. This episode if The Ether is brought to you by Luart is the first gamified NFT platform built on the Terra network. Luart provides a seamless minting and trading experience, all while earning you rewards just for being a user. Be sure to follow them on Twitter and join the community in the Discord server for the most up-to-date news and announcements regarding all the hot new NFT launches, platform upgrades, and new projects hitting the secondary marketplace. Are you ready to #PutYourHelmetOn and join the movement? Find out more at Today on The Ether we have the LUNAomics Risk Management in Action Space. Let’s take a listen.

LUNAomics 1:27
We’re just gonna wait. I have a couple of friends that are going to help co-host this afternoon. Maybe before we get started, we have about six minutes, we can spend some time just sharing what your guys positions are or how you’re managing your risk. We’re at $71.31 on LUNA and this is about a 29% pullback, a little bit more because LUNA’s high was up at over $100 several days ago. Probably a 32%, 33% pullback and I wanted to know how everyone’s doing. I was really encouraged listening to the different ones of you that shared your stories on how your mindset has changed and that there’s not… You don’t have the same stress and kind of can enjoy these pullbacks and picking up more LUNA and knowing what your LTV is going to be. And so if anyone wants to share we got a couple minutes. I’m still looking for Chad and Tony to help me host. Brett Do you want to share something?

OHaraBiz 2:38
Hey LUNAomics, how’s it going, man?

LUNAomics 2:39
Hey, how’s it going?

OHaraBiz 2:40
Not too bad. I’m sitting here at like 43.5% LTV. Just hanging out. It’s been an interesting crash for me, though not too stressful, I was only at like 36% or 37% LTV before we really started going down, so I wasn’t like too leveraged. But probably for me the biggest thing I’m gonna need to look back at and dissect a little bit is, I kind of miss-timed pulling my UST-LUNA LP out of TerraSwap. I think when we kind of bottomed out around $76 the other day and stayed there for a bit, I was like, “Okay, maybe we’re around the bottom now. I’ll pull that out,” take the extra LUNA I’ve gained and just sit on it for a bit, and then we dropped down to $70, $71 today. It would have been nice to pick up the extra LUNA off of that dip as well from the LP pool. So definitely some stuff to look at there. But I’ve been chilling. I think I hit 50-something percent last night and that was a little stressful. But I have my crypto alerts set up with my ringer on so no stress.

LUNAomics 3:44
Awesome. Yeah it’s kind of cool in the Discord everybody was posting what they’re doing in real time. And I think that Discord is kind of a nice place to be able to… When there’s a fast market and things are moving, it’s really hard to do it on Twitter. So the Discord, it’s a really nice place to chat back and forth. And I was watching Spider-Man while moving positions around and eating dinner. [chuckle] So it’s kind of fun. Hey, Chad, great that you joined us.

Chad THOReau 4:11
Hey, how’s it going?

LUNAomics 4:12
Hey, how’s it going? We’re gonna start in two minutes. Maybe we can get one more person. If you’re speaker, I think you can click up on the top, and you can take yourself off as the speaker if you’ve shared, and just give room for other people on the floor.

Chad THOReau 4:29
Cool. And are we going to go straight into having it opened up or do you have kind of a main, core, stuff that you want to cover before bringing up other people?

LUNAomics 4:40
Just maybe a minute or two of just house rules before we jump in.

Chad THOReau 4:44
Cool. Yeah, sounds good.

LUNAomics 4:45
Jasper. Or Jaser.

Jaser 4:47
Hey, how’s it going?

LUNAomics 4:49
How’s it going? Sorry.

Jaser 4:51
No, you’re good. Thank you. Thank you. No, I actually was co-host a couple of other sessions before, so I thought I’d help you out, get some tweets, get some folks to read the pinned Tweets on the Space channel before they join, I’m assuming those are some of the house rules that you wanted to kind of follow through as well. But I also wanted to point out how awesome it was that just two, three weeks ago, you started this and then we kind of saw all of the LTV kind of go live with this. We’re able to kind of experience of how to do risk management properly. So I think it was really cool experience being able to see that live and then being able to discuss that just right after a couple of weeks you talking about it, right? Like seeing that actually how to maneuver around, execute around this and protect ourselves as well. So I think it was pretty cool timing for all of us actually.

LUNAomics 5:35
Cool. Yeah, I thought that the timing was perfect. We talked about risk management in an upmarket it wasn’t really an issue. But it was perfect because right after the class finished, and we did a couple more Spaces just talking through some concepts and stuff, we had a chance to practice it. And not in a crash way like May, but enough that people are getting the concepts and being able to do it in a small way. And hopefully, if it happens in a big way people can adjust. Tony’s on. Jaser, I’ll probably pull you up at the end to co-host just to be able to put those different things up there. So Tony, I gave you a invitation to co-host you got to accept that. So for those of you, Tony… I’ve been trading with Tony for probably 10 years. Even though he’s not on Twitter, he’s in a group that I trade with and a lot of different things like, we talked about the order of liquidations, liquidating the UST parts of the strongest to the weakest, and then going back, a lot of that was in discussions that I’ve had with him where he shared things that he was doing to systematize his liquidations. And so he has a depth of knowledge in trading and just thinks really linearly, so he’s… Or analytically. So I wanted him to be on just to go through these trading ideas or the steps that happened in the December 4th crash, and then just kind of go back and forth, if that was possible. And then Chad, who’s also a co-host. He’s just an awesome cross-chain… Hhe has his hand and mind and everything, so I thought it would be good to have him on board too. So, Tony…

Chad THOReau 7:43
Yeah, thanks. Yeah, I can chime in on anything that goes astray. Yeah, I’m seeing the request from Tony, but it doesn’t give me the option to actually add him. Only thing I could think of is maybe you might have to make sure that your Twitter has access to your microphone, perhaps that can be what’s… The permissions, because it doesn’t seem like you can be added as a speaker right now.

LUNAomics 8:08
I added him as a co-host. And he needs to accept that invitation as a co-host.

Chad THOReau 8:16
Yeah, I ssee him on the request list as well, just to assign him as a normal speaker, but I can’t actually accept it. So yeah, Tony, maybe try just restarting fully out of Twitter and come back and see if that helps. Or maybe the settings on your phone, you might have to enable… I’m not sure it’s that, but it seems like it might be that, you might have to enable Twitter to have access to your mic.

LUNAomics 8:42
Well, why don’t we get started? So one of the things that when I started the Spaces, I created a pinned tweet document at the top of my Twitter feed. And the whole purpose of it was we’re trying to create a culture of… There’s a lot of people that are entering the Terra space right now. And I would say the majority of people that are entering the space are coming from the mindset that crypto is like this meme coin slot machine gamble. And the more people that come in, if we don’t educate the people that are already here and have access to Terra, it’s going to be real easy for that culture to take over the Twitter Space. And so what we’re trying to do is protect the culture that is created… A lot of people that come to Terra are attracted to Terra because of the way that the protocols are designed around traditional finance, that you can use these protocols in really amazing ways. And you take the place of the bank, you take the place of Wall Street, you can capitalize on leverage that traditional markets normally use and get rich off of. And so the more that we can educate how people can use leverage, not be afraid of it, use it responsibly generate wealth. The more people in the space that know how to do that, I think it protects the culture that we have. And as Terra grows, and more normies come in, or more people that are just… Their way of thinking is just to choose a coin and hope that it 10xs and takes away all their problems, if we can develop an educated, sophisticated group of people that know how to use all of these debt instruments, and LUNA derivatives to trade in a way that will accelerate their wealth, as well as the collective group of the Terra ecosystem, I think it could be a really powerful thing.

LUNAomics 10:50
So yeah, I thought it… Just as Jaser was pointing out, I thought it was perfect timing to kind of emphasize risk management, how to look at your LTVs and manage your LTVs during a crash and then right after the Space in the morning, we went through that downturn, and everybody was able to practice it and talk about it. And we haven’t bounced yet, so from this point, we could go lower or we could bounce and head back up. But it’s just good to know that we can have a game plan as far as what we’re going to do in either case. So I kind of want to go through my mindset of what happened on December 4, it was actually the best trade of my life, where I ended up making about a million dollars in that one trade. And there’s different steps that happened throughout the day, so what I want to do is just go through those steps, and then look at where we are right now and just share how I’ve positioned myself in the current market situation, and then open it up for questions and input.

LUNAomics 12:08
So December 4, we went from about $79 all the way down to $50, and then back up to $78. And that all happened in a day, it was a 36% pullback. And what made that move notable… Because we pull back from all time highs by 30% quite often, and somebody posted, I think it was in the Discord, a history of the different pullbacks in LUNA from all time highs, and the vast majority I think were around that 30% mark. And so 30% pullbacks are not uncommon, but this one was interesting because it went down 36% and then rocketed right back up to where it was before the pullback, and it happened within a day. So you had to be very nimble and change your gameplan and actually be watching it to take advantage of that move. So when we entered that, I had done a tweet. I was extremely bullish. We had hit all time highs of $78, pulled back, we were back at all time highs and we’re shooting above the all time highs. So I thought we were gonna go straight to $100. And so my assumption was that we’re very, very bullish. I was very, very bullish, I thought we were going to keep going up. And so when I’m bullish I used all of my borrowing power to go all into LUNA. I don’t balance it off between LUNA and UST. And when I don’t know where the markets going, I kind of keep my LTV maybe at 30%, 35%. But I had it pushed up all the way to 45% and I used all of that buying power just to purchase LUNA. So I wanted to take advantage of it going up. Instead of it going up it turned around and it retraced, and so before I knew it was at that 50% LTV where I needed to manage it.

LUNAomics 14:13
So when I hit 50% LTV, I converted half of the LUNA to bLUNA, and I provided it to Anchor as collateral to pull down my LTV a little bit. Normally I don’t do that. But I just made the decision to do that. And then the other half I converted it to UST, so I sold the other half of my LUNA converted it to UST and put it in Earn. And the reason why I did that was, so when I provided the bLUNA it got me from 50% down to about 40% LTV. That’s a safe place for me, because then I have that 5% from 40% to 45%, that’s pretty safe. And then also from 45% to 50%, and I know that I’ll manage at 50%. So converting to bLUNA and providing it… And one trick to do, whenever I’m trying to figure out what I’m going to do, I’ll go to the bars and I’ll slide things around just to see what it will do to my LTV. So I’ll hit “Repay”, and then I’ll slide the bar to where I want it to be, and see how much money I need to repay to get it to the LTV that I want. And then I’ll go back and I’ll actually sell the LUNA that I need to, to get the UST to repay the loan, to get it to the LTV that I want. So before I make a move, I kind of utilize those different things you can actually go down to provide as well. So on December 4, I actually went down to the provide collateral at the bottom, hit the “Provide” button, before I even had bLUNA, but I went provide and then I typed in how much bLUNA, it would take to bring it down to that 40% LTV, and saw how much it would take and then thought that was a reasonable amount, and then converted the LUNA to bLUNA, provided it to bring my LTV down. So I always use that to kind of plan out what I’m going to do.

LUNAomics 16:33
So I did that, and then because I made that decision to you use my bLUNA to bring down my LTV down to 40%, I was thinking if I sell the remaining part of my LUNA, how low can I bring my LTV? So then that’s where I would do the calculation of how much UST I can get for my LUNA, and then go to my “Repay” button, hit the “Repay” button and then slide the bar to the amount of LUNA that I have left, or UST that I have left if I used the rest of my LUNA to convert to UST. So I took all those things into consideration before doing it. And when I did it, I thought that I had a pretty good safety margin. So then after I did that, I provided it, got down to 40% LTV. And one thing to… When that happened, it was a very unexpected move. For me it was an unexpected move. And I kind of just make the assumption that if it was an unexpected move for me, it’s probably an unexpected move for a lot of other people. So whenever there’s unexpected moves, there’s more extreme movements. So because we had that first pullback and it was unexpected, I just wanted to have a lot of UST on the side, just to prepare for a greater move in that direction. So I had that UST in Earn, just in case it was going to continue to go in that direction, and it actually did. So the 50% LTV was reached again. LUNA kept dropping, and my 50% LTV got hit again and I had to manage it again. So I used the UST that was in the Earn to repay the loan, and then I got back down to a 40% LTV.

LUNAomics 18:45
Okay, so on the second dive, LUNA went all the way down to $50. And $50 was kind of the bottom of that move. My LTV spiked a second time to 50%, and if I hadn’t managed my LTV the first time it hit 50%, I would have gotten liquidated. But because I managed that 50% and kind of moved things around, I had the UST that was in Earn that I could take it out and I could pay down the loan back down to that 38%-40% LTV again. So one thing that I learned from option trading is that when you have a predetermined stop in your head, it’s always good to follow through on that stop because a lot of times when you get to that mental level, all these justifications will come into your mind about, “Oh, I’ll just let it go a little bit more,” or, “It’s ready to bounce,” or different things will happen where you try to convince yourself not to go through with your predetermined plan. And if I hadn’t gone through with managing at that 50% LTV, then I probably would have gotten liquidated so because I stuck with the plan, then the second time I got down to 50%, I was able to bring down my LTV again. And right after I did that, so right after I managed the second time, there was this huge volume candle on the, I think it was probably the five minute chart or something that I was looking at, and whenever you see a large volume candle where it goes down a great deal, but it also goes all the way back up, that’s almost always, probably 90% of the time, it marks the bottom. So where you have a candle that goes down a great deal, and then comes all the way back up, and then you see a huge volume bar that’s greater than the regular bar, it kind of marks the bottom. And so when I looked at that, I thought, “I think we’re at the bottom of this retracement.” And then it bounced from the bottom of $50, it went all the way up to $65. And when when you see a movement like that, it’s never good to chase it, just chase up the price of a coin or stock, as it’s going up. It’s always good to wait for it to retrace and then as it’s going up from the retracement, to enter. That’s always my entry point is after retracement, and then it starts moving back up after the retracement.

LUNAomics 21:36
So it hits $65, retraced down to $58. And the way that I think, when it retraced down to $58, the low of the day was at $50. So when I enter a trade, and I’m entering it at $58, I’m looking at the low of the day at $50, and it’s an $8 difference, right? So it went up to $65, and it’s… It went to $50 bounced all the way to $65, and then it dropped down to $58 and started to inch back up. So at $58 to me, my stop loss point mentally will be $50. And so there’s an $8 risk there. If I jump in at $58, I’m looking at it because… And my assumption is we’re gonna bounce, but if we don’t bounce, and my assumption is wrong, and it turns around and starts going back down, I’m not going to catch a falling knife. I’m gonna exit and let it drop more and recalibrate and think about what my next move will be. So I always look at what my risk is, right? So if we’re at $58, and the lowest is $50, then I have an $8 risk. And so with that $8 risk, I plan my size of what I’m going to go in with. So if it’s buy 100 LUNA, then my risk will be $800 bucks, if it’s 1,000 LUNA, then that’s a $8,000 position, 10,000 LUNA would be $80,000 risk. So I look at where my mental stop is, and I plan my size according to what my risk is. And my risk can never be more than 5% of my total portfolio. So when I look at my position size on anything, I quickly calculate what my risk is and then measure it against my portfolio. And then if it’s acceptable, like between 5%-10% max, then I’ll get into that position.

LUNAomics 23:02
So after the price rebounded… So I got in at that $58 and I pulled it all the way to 45% LTV just because of all those things that I saw, so I went back to 45% LTV and I went all in LUNA I didn’t break it up between UST or anything else. I just went all in LUNA 45% LTV, and then from $58 it just shot straight up to… And when I did that, when I maxed out 45% at $58, I ended up picking up about 10% more LUNA than I started the day with, so my position size was bigger. And with that bigger position size, we went from $58 all the way back up to $78. And that 20 points with my position size helped me book a profit of about $1 million that day. So that was like the craziest trade that I’ve ever done. Because I started the day off with a wrong assumption, I was able to manage it on the way down two times so that I didn’t get liquidated, saw the bottom with that large reversal candlestick with a huge volume indicating that it was turning around, waited for the retracement, and after the retracement calculated what my risk would be if I re-entered, went all in at 45% LTV with both a mental stop, and also like if it did hit 50% LTV I would manage it. And then it took off to the $78 price point. So that was the trade back then. And maybe we can open up for questions on that for a little while, and then let’s jump into where we are today and what my current game plan is for today, and then we can kind of just discuss around that.

Chad THOReau 26:05
Cool bringing up Phil, right now. Phil, it says there was an error if you want to try again with that. And anyone else can feel free to request. But yeah, that whole story, super exciting, a lot of lessons in there and what a wild trade.

LUNAomics 26:20
Hey, Robert.

Robert Urban 26:21
Thank you for everything you do, first of all, but also, I was wondering what you did with those profits that you made on that big day when it went to $78. Can you just explain where you kind of moved your money after that?

LUNAomics 26:36
Yeah, when I provided the bLUNA, that was… I don’t like to loop. But that was actually a loop because the bLUNA that I provided was not above the borrowed amount that I normally… So normally I’ll wait until the positions that I get into with the borrowed money are greater than the value of my borrowed money. And the difference between the two, I’ll convert that LUNA to bLUNA and then add it to my collateral. But in this case, I wasn’t putting it in my bLUNA collateral as the cream on the top, and it wasn’t going into my vault to stay there permanently. It was just to manage my risk. So there’s a difference. Whenever there’s a… Mentally, whenever there’s a difference in my wallet and in the borrowed amount, whatever is greater in my wallet, I’ll convert that LUNA to bLUNA and I’ll put it in Anchor as collateral and my mental objective is that I’m never, never, never, never going to take that out, it’s just going to stay there forever, and it’s going to increase. As LUNA’s value increases, then my borrowing power will increase as well. So that I can use it to do whatever I want with it. This case is a little bit different because I’m managing risk and I’m taking the LUNA that’s in my wallet that is not above my loan value, and I’m converting it to bLUNA and providing it to get my loan to value down. It’s a different purpose. And so after the trade, I need to unwind that position. So I would unwind that position, convert my bLUNA to LUNA. I mean, withdraw it, convert my bLUNA to LUNA, and then put it back in my wallet and wait for it to go up, and then do the same thing. But it went down and so it goes back to managing the risk the way that I normally do, like managing everything at 50% or… Yeah, so that’s what I did after the trade.

Robert Urban 29:03
Alright, thanks for clarifying that.

LUNAomics 29:06

Chad THOReau 29:06
Do you think you would have done anything differently if… It sounds like you caught it on the third dip, right? And it’s like, the fear that has in my mind is like, “Well, what if it’s the dip that keeps dipping and you don’t catch it?” Would you have changed that strategy? Or would you just have… Because that LUNA that you’re getting on borrowed money is going down as well. So then it can be scary if it kind of double, triple, quadruple dips, right?

LUNAomics 29:40
Right. Right. So I think if you’re… So my assumption, my bullish assumption that I started off in the beginning of the day, it kind of changed throughout the day where I took the precaution of… If I was extremely bearish and I thought, “This is going to go way, way down,” instead of converting to bLUNA and providing to bring my loan to value down, I probably would have just sold all of the LUNA and converted it to UST so that I have this huge amount of UST to pay down the loan, and get it to a place of like, 15% LTV or something like that. But because I wasn’t ultra bearish, I was just doing small things to mitigate my risk on the way down. So it just really depends on what the assumption is, and worst case scenario is that your assumption is very, very wrong. Say I was pretty moderately bullish, even in that pullback, what I probably would have done is converted the whole thing to bLUNA and then put it in, got down to like a safe LTV like 35%, and then pushed it up, bought more LUNA and then thought that if we dip, I would just sell the LUNA and get back down to that 35%. I mean, there’s so many different ways that you can like manage risk on your assumption of how bullish or how bearish, moderately bullish, moderately bearish, I mean, there’s things that you can do to trade according to your assumption. And the worst case scenario is that your assumption is completely wrong, and that you don’t modify it as you’re being proved wrong.

LUNAomics 31:37
So that’s why I say mental liquidity is really important to recognize when you’re wrong, and then to shift your gameplan as the market is moving. So when it hit that $50 low, and then it bounced to $68, that was a huge confirmation to me that we’re probably going to go up from here, because that big volume indicates a lot of trades have gone down. And whenever you see huge volume, it’s consensus of price. And so say it goes all the way from like, I don’t know, it was like $78, it goes all the way down to $50, and then bounces all the way back up to $68 on this huge volume. It’s saying that the majority of people are agreeing that the price is worth $68 at the end of that candle. So if the volume bar is like that high, and it’s higher than the normal volume bar by maybe a factor of five, it’s telling you that the majority of people that were buying and selling during that candle agree that the price at $68 is a reasonable price. So then when it drops down to $8 on the next candle, or… Yeah, it was 58 on the next candle, and say the volume’s really low on that candle or is less than that big volume bar. It’s saying that less people agree on the price at $58. And none of these things are hard and fast, but it kind of gives you a context to look at volume versus price. And so because there were so many people that agreed that $60 might be a good price, that puts me in a place where I can look at it and say, okay, risk to reward. Reward is it’s going to go back up to $68. And we’re at $58, right, so the reward side of it is that it could go back up to $68. And the risk part is that it could go down to $50, right. So I have $8 risk on the bottom, but I have $10 risk on the top. I know exactly where I’m going to exit at the bottom if I’m wrong, and I’m just going to ride it till wherever it goes on the top because I want to keep my LUNA. There’s no exit price for me for LUNA, so that’s the way that I’m thinking through the trade.

Chad THOReau 34:02
Awesome. I see Wall Street Mastermind raising his hand.

LUNAomics 34:07
Hey, Wall Street, what’s up?

Wall Street Mastermind 34:08
Hey, thanks for doing this again. Quick question. So what I’m realizing as I’ve been using this strategy over the last couple of weeks is that, so when we borrow obviously there’s multiple things we can do with that money, right. We can keep it in Earn, we can convert it to bLUNA and provide it, we can put in an LP, we can just buy LUNA and just keep it in our wallet, right. I think those are the four options right. So do you have a decision tree or maybe like an order of operations where you say, “Hey, this is my first priority, and then if that’s not the right move, then I go to the next one.” Or is it not that rule based? ‘Cause I know, for example you said for the providing bLUNA you only do that when the amount of LUNA in your wallet is higher than your borrowed amount, right. So I guess that would be the rule for that specific action. But like for all the other ones… Because what I’m kind of having trouble with is figuring out what is the optimal play at any given point in time, if that makes sense?

LUNAomics 35:16
Yeah, yeah, of course. Yeah. So I’ll always start off with my assumption, and then base my trading around my assumption. So you can have… If you want to look at it analytically, maybe you’re extremely bullish is an assumption, or extremely bearish, moderately bullish, moderately bearish. So maybe there’s four different quadrants that you want to look at, or four different levels of assumptions that you can look at. And we’re looking at bearish or bullish on LUNA. So once you understand what your assumption is, then you can base your strategy on your assumption. So the two things that you can kind of fool around with is your LTV and your percentage of LUNA that you’re buying with that LTV, right. So say I’m super, super bullish, right, extremely bullish, my LTV would probably fall at 45%, like how it was at the beginning of this trade. It would be 45% and I would have 100% of that in LUNA. Whereas if I was extremely bearish, my LTV might be at, like 15% LTV and everything… And maybe 5% of it in LUNA and all the way to 45% in UST. So every option is kind of based on that assumption, if I’m 50:50… So like right now, I’m 50:50, I don’t know where this market is going to go because I’ve looked at Bitcoin, Bitcoin looks pretty weak to me, but LUNA is holding up way stronger than Bitcoin. So I don’t know what’s gonna happen, so I’m 50:50. Because my assumption is 50:50, my loan to value will be around 40%, because that’s my comfort level. It will be around 40%. And then I’ll split it up between LUNA and UST. So I’ll have half of it in LUNA, half in UST. And because of that, I’ll just throw it all into the liquidity pool. Because if it goes down, I’m going to pick up LUNA in the liquidity pool. And if it goes up, then I’m going to have my capital gains in the liquidity pool that I’m going to increase the value of the LPs, and I’m also going to be earning the fees and stuff that’s in that pool. And then as we go up and my LTV decreases, I can go ahead and just keep adding more LUNA as we’re rising in price. So that’s if I’m 50:50, and that’s my exact position right now, I don’t know what’s going to happen so I have 50:50, LUNA UST. If I’m more bearish and I think we’re going to go down, then I’m going to probably pull my LTV down a little bit and have way more UST to be able to pay down my loan if we crash or something like that. So those are the two things that I look at, I look at LTV, and I look at percentage of LUNA that I’m using with that LTV, and then I’ll modify those things based on my underlying assumption.

Wall Street Mastermind 38:46
That makes sense. It sounds like you’re saying, though, having a position and UST in Earn is a more bearish position than providing it to the LP, which is kind of like the middle case. Even if you’re bearish though, why not just put what you would have put an Earn in the LP anyway, because you can still…

LUNAomics 39:08
Because you don’t have LUNA to pair it with.

Wall Street Mastermind 39:12
Oh, I see. Okay, got it. That makes sense. So then on the LP side, in terms of the timing of when you put money into the LP versus pull out of the LP, I guess you pull out of the LP when you think the price is almost bottom, and you just want to lock in the additional LUNA that you’ve gained, right. And then you wait until you think it’s kind of like bounced back up to a higher point, and then you put it back into the LP at that point.

LUNAomics 39:45
I don’t know. So for me, like, yeah, there is the impermanent loss as you go up, but you’re getting the capital gains when you’re going up on your tokens. You’re getting the rewards as you’re going up on your tokens, and then you’re also getting a lower LTV, which allows you to buy more LUNA as you’re going up. So, to me it’s kind of like, yeah, you’re getting impermanent loss as you’re going up, but the amount that you’re able to buy with your lower LTV far outweighs it. So for me, I don’t look at the impermanent loss as a huge thing going up. But I could be wrong on that, and that’s why I’m bringing that guy on Saturday, tomorrow. I’m going to ask him what he thinks about that, because the diagrams that he showed on the impermanent loss shows that if you go up, I think it was like, 50%… Or 1.5x higher, your impermanent loss will kind of start affecting your position. So I have a bunch of questions for him as far as… Because we’re looking at doing a 10x-ing, right? And so if LUNA 10xs anything above that 1.5, I believe it was, you start suffering impairment loss in a pretty big way. So I have a bunch of questions for him as far as optimizing the liquidity pool for a massively bullish assumption on a coin.

Chad THOReau 41:21
I have just a quick thought on that, my perspective. I think it’s different when you’re considering being in like the LUNA-UST LP with your main portfolio, versus on the borrow amount because on the borrow amount, this is a strategy to accumulate more LUNA than you had anyways, right. So if you’re using that Borrow money to go into the LUNA-UST LP, and the value of LUNA goes up, you’re ending up with, yeah, less LUNA than you bought on the borrowed money, but your value of what you bought with the borrowed money is now worth significantly more than the loan you took to get it, right. And then at that point you’re locking in new LUNA that you didn’t have anyways. I feel like you can’t really consider that borrowed LUNA to be your main bag of LUNA. So in this case, it’s like if it goes up, yes, you’re ending up with less LUNA than if you had just outright bought that LUNA on straight leverage, basically. But your overall value is still going to be more than not doing it that way at all.

LUNAomics 42:34
Yeah, that’s a great point.

Wall Street Mastermind 42:36
Yeah, that makes sense. One last question, and I’ll give up the floor but, and this might be kind of a noob question, but I know earlier when you talked about the concept of looping, right. I find it with all the… Because there’s three or four different things we can do when we borrow money, I find it a bit hard to track how much of my LUNA is actually bought with borrowed money, versus LUNA that’s already straight out, just my LUNA. So is that just as simple as whatever my borrowed value is that’s the portion of my LUNA that’s borrowed, or I don’t know there’s probably kind of a dumb question.

Phildo UST. Baggins 43:14
Can I jump in really quick, here on this? This will be fast because I think a lot of people are missing that you don’t ever borrow LUNA, and that’s why this is very effective. So I know that you can borrow UST, and you can buy LUNA, but effectively it’s important to understand you never borrow LUNA, because that’s a terrible idea. Don’t borrow LUNA if you have to pay back LUNA. You borrow UST and you buy LUNA, so continue but that’s a really important distinction. So you’re never borrowing LUNA so you don’t end up with the same… Like you see these Bitcoin traders that borrow Bitcoin to collateralize against their position so they end up with this compounding effect. So you can do that to yourself but in effect you’re paying back UST because you’ve borrowed UST, so it’s always important to remember that.

Wall Street Mastermind 43:57
Okay, so basically the borrowed amount is in UST and so basically as long as I make sure that… It’s basically what he says, have enough LUNA in my wallet to be able to cover that amount, then just take the rest off the top, then I should be fine.

Phildo UST. Baggins 44:13
Yeah, or UST. sorry to jump in with that. I don’t mean to distract you. But I’ve seen a lot of people mentioning borrowing LUNA, and you never borrow LUNA because that’s very, very dangerous. So you borrow UST because that’s deflationary. And you want to borrow with something that and then you buy LUNA. So, that’s an important distinction.

Alex Bentley 44:30
Just on this point guys, sorry to interrupt, it’s something I’ve been curious about is, so obviously you borrow UST, you buy LUNA. Ideal scenario is LUNA jumps up and you just made a gain. Now, like me, you guys are probably bullish on LUNA long term. Do you ever liquidate that LUNA to then repay down that debt? Or do you just let that debt sit there?

Phildo UST. Baggins 44:52
You can get to a point where you have to, which I’ve made that mistake and that’s not an ideal situation. But that happens.

Alex Bentley 44:59
So do you have a set of rules whereby there’s a time where you have to liquidate that LUNA that you’ve bought to pay down that loan?

Phildo UST. Baggins 45:06
For me… LUNA probably can comment on this, but really quick for me, that’s a risk tolerance thing. And then I’ll let LUNA take over. I don’t mean to distract.

LUNAomics 45:13
Hey, sorry, multitasking. Yeah, so I’m not sure… You can borrow LUNA. I mean, I can’t see the difference between borrowing LUNA and borrowing… You’re using UST to buy LUNA, and you’re buying LUNA with borrowed UST. The way that I structure everything is that all of my capital goes into LUNA, and then provided as collateral. And so all of the LUNA that’s in my vault is my LUNA. And then you use the borrowed money to purchase, you know, whatever you want. So the way that I look at my owned LUNA versus the borrowed LUNA, or the LUNA that I bought with borrowed money, is just looking at my debt compared to what’s in my wallet. So if my wallet has less value than my debt, then I’m running a deficit. And to balance that deficit off, I would need to withdraw some of my LUNA, or bLUNA, and then either put it in my wallet and not sell it, but just to balance off my debt to my wallet, or sell it to repay down my loan.

Phildo UST. Baggins 46:39
This depends on your earnings though, right? And your LP positions. Because if you have other UST available, or if you have cashflow, all of this changes.

LUNAomics 46:48
Not really I mean, if you have a debt that you owe…

Phildo UST. Baggins 46:52
Just really quick, in terms of withdrawing the bLUNA and having to sell it, that’s a position that you only get in when you’re out of dry powder or other cash positions.

LUNAomics 47:02
Yeah but if you want to keep that ratio, you never want to get underwater during a crash. And you never want to balance off everything during a crash.

Phildo UST. Baggins 47:18
Ok, that’s an important point then, that’s all I was getting at. Thank you.

LUNAomics 47:22
Yeah, that’s why you don’t want to loop too much. Because when you loop, what you’re really doing is you’re getting into this debt position where the amount that you owe is way more than what you have in your wallet. And when LUNA goes down, you have to unwind that position. And it’s never fun to unwind when you have to be converting and managing a spread that you have no control over.

Phildo UST. Baggins 47:51
Yeah, so to continue on that really fast, the part of that that I was adding on, just sorry to interrupt, is yes, that’s correct. But then if you have LP positions, you have those to manage it also, which is something you’ve talked about. So you have like two moving parts to this. Sorry, if this gets complicated, but that’s another…

LUNAomics 48:10
Yeah. So when I say wallet, I’m including all of those things that you have all of your assets outside of your…

Phildo UST. Baggins 48:17

LUNAomics 48:18

wintermute 48:19
Perhaps I’m too conservative, but I’ve never come into a situation where I’ve had to repay any of my loans. And I have short positions on Mirror, I have borrowed assets bLUNA on Anchor, I have UST in Anchor, and I have never even come close to having to rebalance anything.

Phildo UST. Baggins 48:38
Yeah, it depends on your real world expenditure, and it depends on your margins, and it also depends on your LTV tolerance. But when I say repay loan, I mean repay fractions of your loan to manage LTV. I’m never intending on squashing this debt until there’s a reason to.

Chad THOReau 48:54
Yeah, and just circling back to the original question from from Wall Street, I do think it makes sense to just look at what is your collateral value, what is your LTV, and then do you have that in some sort of liquid position? Whether you’re putting that in LPs, in Earn, in LUNA as leverage, whatever you’re using the loan for, if that’s equal to or outweighing your total borrow UST value, then you’re in a pretty safe place.

Phildo UST. Baggins 49:24
100% agreed.

Wall Street Mastermind 49:26
Yeah, that makes sense. But I got… So last question, I guess, say my borrowed value, let’s pretend, is like $20,000. It’s not like I need to ever pay down the full $20,000. I just need to be able to pay it down to a manageable LTV, right. So like, maybe I only need, I don’t know, $10,000 of LUNA in my wallet, the collective wallet as a whole. Right just to be able to manage. Is that the right way to think about it? I don’t need the full amount.

Phildo UST. Baggins 49:53
That is correct. If you’re asking me.

LUNAomics 49:54
Yeah, I would look at it in the same way.

Wall Street Mastermind 49:57
Okay, got it. Thank you guys.

LUNAomics 49:58
Yeah. Could we do this in the future, if you’re going to speak, could you raise your hand? Just to moderate this a little bit more smoothly. And then when you have the floor, you can go back and forth between other people who have the floor. But please raise your hand if you’re going to speak.

Chad THOReau 50:14
Yeah, and Hutch is very politely raising his hand, first in line right now, I think. And I’ll add also, we’re getting the speaker line pretty filled up right now. So if you’ve already asked you’re question, and you feel like you’re done, if you could just remove yourself as a speaker. Otherwise, I might have to start kicking off people that I think are done. But if you are done, if you can make some space, would be great.

LUNAomics 50:35
Yeah, Hutch?

Chad THOReau 50:36
Yeah, so great timing on this call. Thanks. I’m really looking forward to the impermanent loss call tomorrow. In fact I talked about doing a video and I think I’m gonna delay it until I watch that so I have better context. But my question is pretty simple. Instead of doing the LUNA-UST pool, if the purpose of the UST is to really protect against LTV, and the purpose of… One of the benefits of that is you automatically rebalance or buy LUNA, when it’s down. If it’s a really short term move for you, is it better just to keep it at Anchor Earn, at that point, to preserve how much UST is there? Because obviously, if the value of the pool goes down, because LUNA is going down, then there’s going to be less UST there. So I think it’s a great long term play, but I mean, in a situation like this, where you’re just looking to manage over, call it a week or less worth of volatility, I don’t know if the fees are making up for that. So if you don’t see it being a long term play for you, do you think it’s better just to kind of keep them separate and be ultra defensive?

LUNAomics 51:43
Yeah, I mean, you can do that. If you… And that’s the interest… So we’re gonna jump into that tomorrow. If you look at the graphs that he put on his tweet, it’s really interesting, because you want to look at… A lot of people don’t understand impairment loss is not the capital gains or loss on the LP position, it’s the difference between if you were to hold both tokens separately in a wallet, and then you are to hold both tokens and in an LP position, as the price of the volatile asset goes up or down, and the pool rebalances, there’s a difference between the value of the LP and the value of, if you’re just holding it separately, those two tokens in a wallet, the difference between those values, that’s the impermanent loss. And the value happens both on the token and on the stable coin that’s in the LP, but it acts as a buffer, right. So when it’s going down, you’re not going to lose as much, because you’re gaining the volatile token. When the price of the token is going up, you’re not going to make as much because you’re getting less of the token. So if you look at the graph, when the price is going down, and you compare it against holding it in your wallet and Anchor Earn, the place where you start seeing the difference is after a 50% loss.

LUNAomics 53:31
So if you were to put, for the purpose of just making an illustration, if you were to put, say you had $100,000, and you put $50,000 in LUNA and $50,000 in UST, and you put it in your wallet. When LUNA drops by 50%, you’re gonna have your LUNA side worth $25,000. And you’re going to have your UST side still worth $50,000, right. If you put that in an LP, according to the graph, the amount that you’re going to lose on the UST side is very negligible. But once it passes 50%, once LUNA goes down more than 50%, that’s when the curve steepens until it gets to zero and then you have no UST. So when you’re looking at that graph, it tells you that a 50% pullback on LUNA would would be my stop. That would be the place that I would withdraw my UST and my LUNA, and then just separate it out, and then use my UST to pay back my loan if I was looking at it on a price perspective. But if you’re managing LTV, you’re going to hit your LTV way before LUNA drops 50%, because your LTV will move about 10% for every 18%-20% move in the underlying. So when LUNA moves 20% down or 18% down, your LTV will go up about 10%. So you’re never going to get to the place… I mean, not never, but… Well, it should be never because you should be managing your LTV. I don’t think you’ll ever get to a place where LUNA will drop 50%, and you’ll start experiencing that impermanent loss on a steep curve before you manage your LTV.

Hutch 55:46
Yeah, well that’s really, really interesting. So I’m looking forward to that tomorrow. And just to put it out there with the community, because it’s really cool to see everybody kind of getting into this, really looking for, call it, very stable defensive pools. And that may be one of it, and I just don’t understand it well enough. But what I came to the conclusion of yesterday, with my LUNA-bLUNA and just over collateralizing, if you’re really fearing going back to like, if you’re very bearish, 50:50, if you’re really fearing that we’re gonna have a big drop, and use my method of just trying to over collateralize with bLUNA, you kind of literally paint yourself into a corner. And you can kind of see where that corner is, where it’s like, “Well, this is gonna work great, unless we go past that corner, and then I’m going to get slammed in the wall.” [chuckle] And my LTV is going to go from 60% to 45% and there’s not a damn thing I can do about it. And essentially, I’m going to lose 25% of my collateral at the lowest price possible. And so that was kind of a big aha for me in this. I haven’t gotten liquidated yet to this point, I’ve always tended to over collateralize, but I’ve also bit off a little bit more on the way up to take advantage and fill my bags. What I realized is if we get down to the $40s, I could be in big trouble there.

LUNAomics 57:01
Yeah, I think we’ll all be in big trouble. [chuckle] Let’s stay above the $40s.

Hutch 57:07
That’s a good idea. All right, thanks. I’m gonna step down.

LUNAomics 57:10
Alright. Thanks. maro. maro?

maro 57:18
Hi. Yes, hello. Can you hear me?

LUNAomics 57:21

maro 57:23
Okay, so I want to ask a question, which is kind of about risk management, but it’s not a technical question about how to manage your TVL, or these kinds of things. You said something very interesting in the beginning, you said that it’s very necessary to always be able to put in question the assumption that we started the trade with, and be able to question things and to see whether we’re right or wrong, while the trade is going on. So I just wanted to see what’s your take on what’s happening with the Fed and what the performance of the Bitcoin. For example, in case they change things, or Bitcoin drops below 40? What’s your… How do you visualize the performance of LUNA? For me, my vision is, LUNA will be all good while the UST is performing very good, and now it’s holding to the $1 price perfectly fine. So I’m not worried because UST is the main thing. So I just wanted to see how do you visualize things? And did these last changes?

LUNAomics 58:43
Yeah, so I think one of the main things is just looking at the BTC-LUNA chart, you can see the relative strength of one against the other. And you can see that LUNA is performing… It’s very strong against BTC right now. The thing is that anything can change at any moment. And so you can have your assumption that… So when I look at the overall picture, I think 90% of the time LUNA will follow the general trend of the market, which most other coins will be 99% of the time. We’ve seen LUNA be uncorrelated with the general market, more than any other coin that I’ve seen. So if there’s an expectation to go against the trend, I think LUNA has the greatest chance of that. But at the same time, markets move together. So if I see that Bitcoin is in a weak position, I’m just a little bit more hesitant to go all in in anything. But if I see that LUNA is being uncorrelated with the market and doing its own thing, then I wouldn’t hesitate to jump in and to ride that. So I mean everything is… You have your assumptions, but you have to be flexible with your assumptions and just let the market tell you what to do.

maro 1:00:22
Sorry, I got dropped out of this Space, and then I just continued talking to myself.

Chad THOReau 1:00:28
Hopefully, you caught the answer.

maro 1:00:30
I will listen to the recording again on Spotify.

Chad THOReau 1:00:33
Cool. I think Joseph has had his hand up the longest right now.

LUNAomics 1:00:35
Hey, Joseph, how’s it going?

Joseph 1:00:36
Hey, guys, thanks for hosting this Space. I wanted to get a little bit of clarity as to what you should do if you’ve already kind of backed yourself in a corner. I mean, it’s not bad. I entered LUNA back when it was at like $7. And I did do a loop to kind of secure as much LUNA as I could at those price levels. And it’s sure paid enough pretty well. But at this point, especially with a pullback like this, even with managing and LTV of about 30%, it got dangerously close to liquidation levels, and it kind of just spooked me. And I just wanted to see if you have any insights or any advice what to do if you’re already in a loop position to where some of your borrowed power was lost in a UST Valkyrie position, LP, and then also have some that’s already looped in as collateral.

LUNAomics 1:01:25
Your LTV is currently at 30%?

Joseph 1:01:27

LUNAomics 1:01:27
Is your LTV right now at 30%?

Joseph 1:01:29
Yeah, I don’t know what’s wrong with Twitter Spaces on Android. This is grotesque.

Chad THOReau 1:01:34
You’re good right now if you wanna answer.

Joseph 1:01:36
Okay, sweet. Yeah. So my LTV right now, I believe, it’s chilling at about 40%, 42%. So things are chilling when it’s at $70. My liquidation point is around $55.

LUNAomics 1:01:50
Okay, and then how much… What’s your loan?

Joseph 1:01:53
My loan is $7,000.

LUNAomics 1:01:56
Okay, $7,000 and then the amount of your assets, liquid assets that you have available to sell and repay the loan is, what is that at?

Joseph 1:02:07
Okay, so that’s the problem is that I went full, irresponsible degen and locked away the majority of my borrowed value in Astroport, Stader… Yeah. So there were some terrible decisions made to get into this position in the first place. So that’s making me consider selling off a little bit of my bLUNA collateral to get out of this situation.

LUNAomics 1:02:36
Oh, got it. Got it. How much time do you have left?

Joseph 1:02:40
So I tiered my deploys in Astroport. I did three different deploys, one for a moonshot, another one for a midterm, and then another one for like, a month. So I’ll have some LUNA-bLUNA LP freeing up pretty soon, and some ASTRO tokens to come with that. And then the STADER tokens, to be honest, I don’t know when those will get unlocked.

LUNAomics 1:03:02
Oh okay, yeah. So the way that I like to work everything is when you borrow off of your LUNA, you divided up into either stacking or buying LUNA, liquid LUNA to put in your wallet, or putting it toward cashflow. And when you put it toward cashflow, like say you wanted to get into all of these gateway pools and things that are going to lock up your funds, I would never do it with borrowed money just because of the situation that we’re encountering now, a pullback and without a potential liquidation. So I’ll never lock up borrowed money, you always want to have your borrowed money liquid. And I go as far as to not even have too much bLUNA on hand because of the spread potential, which I think is kind of going away because in this pullback, it was at 99.5 The majority of the time, so we just have to see how it’s gonna respond in a deeper pullback. But yeah, so I would only jump into those offers with cash from LPs. So if you put your borrowed money into an LP position, that LP position, most of the time is liquid. And then the rewards from that you would put into things that you lock up. That’s the way that I would…

LUNAomics 1:04:31
Now that you’re in this situation, though. It’s really up to you what you want to do, it’s kind of like you’re at the mercy of the market right now. So you can either hope to not get liquidated, and I don’t think that you’d get liquidated as bad as it was in May. Because it seems Kujira… If it’s not a super fast and hard pullback, you’re not going to get liquidated at 30%. Hopefully you’ll get liquidated at 3%, or 4%, or whatever, which is kind of what you would pay for a spread anyway, if you were to unwind that position. So I don’t know, it’s up to you if you want to unwind that position and sell off your LUNA, or if you just want to hold and hope that we don’t go lower here. So yeah, there’s a thing that we have in trading it’s that your risk is controlled that order entry. Once you get into your position, then you don’t have control, you don’t have as much control. So yeah, just got to be careful not to lock up your funds, or put it in a place where you can’t access it if we do crash. But that’s a great lesson to learn. I’m sure you’re never going to do that again. [chuckle] Pain is the best teacher.

Chad THOReau 1:05:51
He got dropped. He might have… Oh, there you go.

Joseph 1:05:54
Capital at that point. Just still learning. LUNA was my first entry to just DeFi in general. So I really appreciate the insights. I’m definitely gonna put something into practice and…

Chad THOReau 1:06:06
Shoot, my bad. I think I hit the mute. I was trying to add speakers. Sorry, if I cut you off.

Joseph 1:06:11
I have no idea where I got cut off. But it’s all good. I really appreciate you guys.

LUNAomics 1:06:15
Awesome. Thanks, Joseph.

Chad THOReau 1:06:16
Spaces literally puts the “Mute” button in the same place that the “Request” button pops up. So sometimes you can very easily hit the mute everyone. My bad.

LUNAomics 1:06:27
Maybe we can go with John.

Chad THOReau 1:06:28
Yeah, John, you can go ahead.

John_Mute 1:06:30
Hello guys, I keep dropping off. Twitter Spaces is so annoying. Basically, the strategy is straightforward in the rules, but the execution is where it gets complicated. So the way I understand it is, the more bearish you are, the more UST you want to be, the more bullish you are, the more LUNA you want to be with, whatever your borrowed value money you’re comfortable at. So I am in a weird position. So when I started, I followed the strategy with a 25:15 split. And because obviously I was more bullish. And now we are in a position where I am, like I say, 50:50. I still have not reached a dangerous LTV, I’m less than 40. And I’m wondering whether I should adjust, turn some of the LUNA that are liquid into UST and put it into the pool to reflect that 50:50 view? Or wait until it actually reaches maybe higher level? So my question is, when do you adjust, LUNAomics, your wallet? When do you adjust your wallet to reflect your opinion? Is it at a certain LTVs? Or it’s more dynamic?

LUNAomics 1:07:54
Yeah, I think it’s just more dynamic. It’s wherever… ‘Cause right now I’m 50:50 as far as where I think we’re gonna go from here. But I am at 45% LTV and 50:50 in LUNA-UST that’s been provided to the TerraSwap liquidity pool. If I were to rebalance according to what I really think, I would probably be at like a 30% LTV, but I’m just gonna ride what I have now and hope that we go up. Or down, it kinda doesn’t matter right now. Let’s go with a couple more. We started… Oh, no, no… So we’re at one hour.

sanjeev Rawat 1:08:45
Hey, LUNA, LUNA… I can’t pronounce it. Can ask a question?

LUNAomics 1:08:50
Chad, how much time do you got?

Chad THOReau 1:08:53
I’ve got… I can keep going.

LUNAomics 1:08:54
Okay, all right.

sanjeev Rawat 1:08:55
So, I had a question on the Anchor Earn. And I see that the results are dipping, right. So in a bear market, I mean, is that sustainable, that 19% yield? What’s your thoughts on that? Because I have seen that the yield reserves, they’re depleting every day. So I’m not sure.

LUNAomics 1:09:18
Yeah, I don’t think that’s something to really worry about. I mean, in the past, it’s gotten down to… I forgot the lowest that it’s gotten down to, and then it was replenished by TFL. Of course, that’s not ideal. But if it does get to a place where the Anchor Earn starts going down, you just got to migrate to where the opportunity is.

sanjeev Rawat 1:09:42
And then a couple of times I’ve seen that the UST peg is going down, right. It’s trading sub one. So in those cases, I mean, do they then end up generating more LUNA? Because is the reverse, right? The more UST basically LUNA burns, but then if it is an algorithmic peg, if UST goes down, which means you have to generate more LUNA. Can you explain how does that work?

LUNAomics 1:10:06
Yeah, so the market goes through expansion and contraction, and it just goes back and forth. So it’s just a natural… Nothing goes straight up. The demand for UST is not just going to go straight up. It ebbs and flows. And so the trajectory is up. But on its way there, you’re gonna have going below the peg, above the peg. And that’s just the natural market dynamic.

sanjeev Rawat 1:10:35
Understand that. And one last thing, for bLUNA in Anchor, if you keep bLUNA, I think you get some interest, right? But what is the APR, do you know? Because they don’t publish it.

LUNAomics 1:10:46
Yeah. And I don’t know what that is. But I know if you keep it in your wallet, that you you can claim that under the Bond tab in Anchor.

sanjeev Rawat 1:10:53
Okay. Sure. Thanks, man.

abstract2023 1:10:56
I wanted to get your thoughts on Brett Harrison of FTX had a post a while back talking about when there’s a dip in crypto that NFTs tend to do better. What are your thoughts on how a probably, hopefully a short term downturn in crypto pricing relates to value of NFTs?

LUNAomics 1:11:20
I think that’s a good question for Chad. [chuckle] He’s a NFT guy.

Chad THOReau 1:11:25
I mean, just to some extent. Some people are far, far deeper down NFTs than I am, but I can guess, I can speculate my thoughts at least. I could totally see it happening, assuming that… I think we’re just entering like a new era of crypto where it’s not like crypto versus fiat, it’s more like speculative crypto versus stable coin yield versus NFT versus whatever degen thing you could potentially be doing in the cryptoverse. So I find that I personally am a supercycle type of mega bull. Yeah, I mean, do I think things can drop a lot? For sure. Potentially. I mean, LUNA could go to $20. I would believe it. But at the same time, I generally don’t… I find it hard not to be macro bullish on crypto basically all the time. So the way I see it is that money starts looking for other sectors of crypto when things are kind of sideways. So yeah, I mean, I hope so, I think it’d be fun. I mean, it’s much better than people pulling out to fiat and going back to… I mean, what are you going to go back to? I like to zoom out and think about what crypto is really all about here. And obviously, we’re all looking for trades and yield and stuff like is cool. But this macro movement is really the exciting part. And I think the money that’s in here is, for the most part, looking for somewhere to utilize that within crypto. So yeah, when things get boring, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an NFT boom during a sideways period again.

LUNAomics 1:13:11

Chad THOReau 1:13:12
Brent, Brent has been raising his hand.

BrentG 1:13:15
Thank you. Yes, this is my first Twitter Spaces. And I’m dollar cost averaging into crypto now, find out about the Terra ecosystem, and really fell in love with LUNAomics Twitter posts as a good kind of onboarding into this ecosystem and how I can use it. And I know the investment thesis is that LUNA is going to 10x this year, and thinking about different… Kind of the borrow mechanism and how that works, and Anchor Earn and how that works, my understanding is that your bLUNA actually funds the Earn interest rate and everything. And there’s a tool out there called Anchor Simulator, that I did some modeling with some assumptions in there about what the borrow interest rate is, etcetera. And I’m just wondering if our goal is to retain as much LUNA as possible this year, if it would be beneficial to stake the LUNA, or use a tool like LunaX or nLUNA to autocompound the LUNA, instead of using Borrow as kind of a risk management approach. I still have a W-2 income, so I’m not able to really necessarily hop in on a recent market correction and respond within an hour on something. So just want to get your thoughts on that.

LUNAomics 1:14:56
Yeah, so I do have a W-2 job and I use the website to call my phone when certain price targets are hit, and then I can manage it within three minutes. So I mean, yesterday I was eating lunch with my wife, and my alarm went off, I hit 50% LTV and I told my wife, “Hey, I’m in a fast market, I just got to do some adjusting,” and left the table for about three minutes and adjusted everything down to 40% LTV and came right back. So this kind of stuff can easily be done if you learn how to do it. And then as far as all the other ways to accumulate LUNA, nothing comes close, not staking, not LPs, not using rewards for LPs to buy more LUNA. There’s nothing that comes close to the performance of using the increasing amount of borrowing power that you have from an increased collateral base of LUNA that’s rising 10x. If you can safely use your increased amount of borrowing power to purchase more LUNA, by far that’s the best strategy to accumulate more LUNA this year, if the underlying assumption is correct. And there’s spreadsheets on that. We’ve made tons of spreadsheets, if you go to our Discord and jump into the resources, or just go to my pinned tweets, you’ll find a bunch of those spreadsheets up there.

BrentG 1:16:42
Okay, thank you.

LUNAomics 1:16:43
Yeah, awesome. We can go with ar807.

ar807 1:16:48
Hello, thank you. And like everyone else, I really appreciate you doing this, and the education has been phenomenal. I’m sort of new in the DeFi space, but I just want to reiterate what I think I heard collectively is that the money that you have in your wallet should probably not exceed the total borrowed amount that your optimized… Or your desired LTV. Is that correct?

LUNAomics 1:17:15
Could you say that one more time?

ar807 1:17:17
So the amount that I would have in my wallet, the liquid LUNA…

LUNAomics 1:17:22
Let’s just say… Yeah, let’s just say liquid available assets.

ar807 1:17:26
So for my liquid available assets as a good metric to kind of look at, it should not exceed the total borrowed amount at my ideal LTV. So let’s say I want to be a 45%. I have $1,000 borrowed, probably my liquid assets should not be less than 1000. Is that what we’re saying?

LUNAomics 1:17:47
Yeah, yeah. And it will fluctuate back and forth, but you just kind of want to… That’s kind of your ideal spot. You might want it way below.

ar807 1:17:56
Right, okay. So if it goes down, up or down a small percent it’s okay. And then you’re basically waiting for the appreciation, such that your LTV goes down, and that’s when you would borrow some more? Or would that be the time… I’m trying to figure out… Alright, so it appreciates. So I haven’t been at that stage yet where it appreciated, I kind of got into this and it’s sort of been on a downward trend, which is fine and I’m feeling very comfortable thanks to everyone here. But the question, I’m sure I’ll see it, but at what point do you then start actually transferring those liquid assets to bLUNA?

LUNAomics 1:18:28
I don’t have a hard and fast percentage, or how much it is. It’s kind of like if I see it at a few thousand dollare then I’ll buy a few thousand dollars more of LUNA and throw it in my bLUNA, and then push my LTV up to wherever I want it to be. So it really depends on what you want to do.

ar807 1:18:52
Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

LUNAomics 1:18:53

Chad THOReau 1:18:54
People waiting, make sure to raise your hand, which some of you are, that’s great. But I think Paul has been waiting a while. I’m not sure if you’ve already spoke, but if you had a question, Paul. And then we’ll go to people with with hands up. Might accept that. Let’s go with Max.

LUNAomics 1:19:10
I can remove them.

Max 1:19:11
Alright, can you guys hear me?

LUNAomics 1:19:13
What’s up, man?

Max 1:19:13
I’m good. Yeah. I really appreciate all the things you guys have done and stuff like that. So my question is, between the buying and selling and managing the LTV since swaps are capital gains and stuff like that. Is the underlying assumption of it 10x-ing, is that the only reason why… Or is that the only, I guess, thing that would make it worth the constant maybe buying and selling with all this volatile action?

LUNAomics 1:19:13
Yeah. So that the underlying assumption of what we’re talking about is the strategy from the 2022 post. And everybody has a different conviction about it and using the strategy according to their conviction. So you If you think that there’s a 50% chance of LUNA 10x-ing, then maybe put a certain amount into it according to your convictions. So that’s the way that I presented it. If you think that you have 100% conviction that LUNA is going to 10x, then it just makes sense to place your bets that way. So, I don’t know, does that answer your question? Are you asking if the assumption has changed because of the pullback if the strategy is different because of the pullback?

Max 1:20:30
No. I’m saying, obviously, since swaps to stablecoins and stuff like that are kind of like… Since whatever you make off of it is… Let’s say you start off from a low point, and then like you’re making bigger swaps and then you had like… There are large capital gains that you’re making from doing the swaps, like managing your LTV and stuff like that. In that situation, and stuff like that. Since like… I don’t know, if I’m framing this right.

Chad THOReau 1:21:03
I think I might get what you mean, if I can try to phrase it. Are you saying that… Thinking to avoid doing just tons of big trading moves because of short term tax implication versus long term? And so then you’re saying like, “Well, why trade in and out all the time, because you’re taking those tax hits?” But I think with this strategy, and correct me if I’m wrong, LUNAomics, but that main bLUNA collateral is not ever being traded. And so any of this new stuff that came that gets added, that’s just the effective entry price for what you’re going to long term hold. And any… Yeah, I guess there could be some… I mean, we’re not really ever selling unless you’re on the way down, which I guess in that case, you’d actually be taking a loss on some of that LUNA you bought on borrow. Maybe I’m off, but is that kind of what you’re asking, is how you factor in the tax implication to the strategy?

Max 1:22:08
Yeah, a little bit. Yeah. That’s kind of more how I wanted to frame that question.

LUNAomics 1:22:13
Yes. So what Chad said was correct, your main position is in bLUNA, or my main position is in bLUNA, and everything that is being treated as kind of just with the borrowed money to accumulate more, and then you’re moving it into that stack. So there would be tax implications. And there’s… I know, Hutch has talked about going from bLUNA to LUNA as a taxable event. And it still needs to be seen what the IRS is going to… What they’re going to decide in those kinds of transactions. But I think that the amount… If you look at risk to reward, risk being taxes, reward being able to double your amount of LUNA, and LUNA 10x-ing next year, the reward far outweighs any type of risk from taxes. And if you do, if you categorize your taxes as last one in first one out, your tax liability should be pretty small, because you’re not paying tax capital gains on the biggest capital appreciation, like your first coin that you ever purchase. You’re going to be paying taxes on your last coin that you purchase, and the first coin that you sold after it. So if you structure your taxes in that way, then you can minimize your tax liability. You can’t get rid of it, but you can make it smaller.

Hutch 1:23:54
You mind if I kick that up a notch?

LUNAomics 1:23:57
Yeah, I go ahead.

Hutch 1:23:57
Just the tax aspects. So LIFO, what he said is one, FIFO. But you can also do specific lots. And you can also do specific lots across multiple wallets and exchanges. So what Chad was saying I think is true, but probably the best thing to do is once a year… Papy, I was on a Space with him the other night and he suspected that Track Terra is going to be out at the end of this month, which is props to him for getting that going. So what I plan to do, I was very cognizant of not doing swaps when LUNA exceeded a price that I ever bought at. But as soon as it started to come back down and I started to dollar cost average in again, then I was cool doing swaps because I knew I could go ahead and match basis with something that I would bought, even if it was on KuCoin, even if it was on Coinbase, even if I had done it in another wallet, it doesn’t matter. So I try and stay cognizant of, “Hey, am I in the zone where I’ve never bought before?” Because if so yeah, I’m going to probably pay some short term gains and I’d rather not. But if I come back to a zone where I’ve done a lot of transacting, and arguably, some of us transacted here, and if we go down even further, we probably have a whole glut of transactions, I think you’re going to be able to match it up to where there’s not going to be a lot of tax at all. And if we’re going down to Chad’s point, you’re gonna be able to harvest some losses out of those swaps, that you’re going to be able to then go ahead and offset future gains. So just wanted to share that from an optimized tax point. I don’t think that should stop you from doing this strategy, unless we start to go in the stratosphere. And if we do, then just don’t swap anymore, unless you’re going to start dollar cost averaging into that swap if you’re concerned about the taxes. Does that makes sense?

Max 1:25:38
Yeah, that does. Thank you.

Hutch 1:25:40
If you guys need me to step down, I can do that, too.

Chad THOReau 1:25:42
No, we got space right now, if… I don’t see any hands up. But I believe there’s a few people up here that haven’t asked questions, if anyone wants to go ahead.

DefiZealot 1:25:52
Yeah, this is DefiZealot. I wanted to thank LUNAomics for your concise and awesome Tweet threads, I’ve learned so much from you. One thing that I wanted to ask about and maybe it’s alpha that you can’t share yet, but you hinted at… Or people in your threads has hinted at this being automated, this whole leverage and keeping LUNA at hand, instead of doing it manually, like Nexus or someone like that would be able to automate this strategy for us. Can you speak a little more about that? And also related, how does that compare to the 2x LUNA, leveraged LUNA that you can be doing with Levana in the future? If you could kind of talk in that form, so that we don’t have to do the manual back and forth on the leverage and all of that.

LUNAomics 1:26:52
So the Nexus guys, I’m going to have an interview with them at the end of next week, because they said that they’re working on some stuff and they want to make an announcement, I guess, or something, on Friday. I’ve only had one talk with them and they really liked the idea of stacking LUNA with more LUNA and it’s gonna start off very simple. They wanted to do something that everyone could kind of understand what was going on in the background, because if you have… We’re talking about a little bit more complex managing techniques and systems around how to protect yourself. Theirs are going to be really simple to start off with, and then to optimize, they’ll build in different things, is what I understand from them. So I don’t know, I don’t know exactly how it’s going to be structured. But they said that they’ll keep us updated. They’re actually working on a bunch of stuff, and have talked about wanting to be able to kind of be a protocol that brings the ideas of the community to life. So I think that that’s a really cool vision that they have, or pivoting into. But as far as the Lavana stuff, my mode of learning… I wait for it to come out, and then I throw money at it and actually use it. That’s the way that I learn, is more tactile and hands on. So a lot of the things that are on the horizon, I don’t have any kind of real solid opinion on how I would use it. I’m just waiting for them to come out. And then gonna dabble with it once it comes out and see if I can work it into something that allows me to more efficiently stack LUNA this year.

DefiZealot 1:28:51
Cool. Yeah, thanks. That does answer my question. Do I have time for one quick, more, one, just to do with leveraging? So let’s say you’ve gotten into a position where you run out of set aside bLUNA collateral and you’re really close. I’ve been using Kujira to like, kind of as the downs in the last couple of days, I’ve been just looping through Kujira, taking the little bit loan out and keeping it around 40%. But one thing that I noticed is that if it keeps on going further, if I get closer to liquidation, it’s like if I try to deleverage out, unloop things, then I would have to buy LUNA at really… Or sell at a really low price. And I wonder if you have any advice on that process of getting out or deleveraging, in case LUNA goes to let’s say, $40 or something like that, right? Is there anything better than having to lose your LUNA to a lower price to get out of that kind of a bad situation?

LUNAomics 1:30:03
I mean, if you’re currently holding bids on Kujira and it’s endangering your bLUNA, I would just say to cancel your active bids and move that UST over to pay down your loan. I wouldn’t keep the capital on Kujira for the hope of a discount of LUNA, when you’re… I mean, it would be kind of humorous if you were the one that liquidated yourself. But yeah, I would deactivate my bid and pay down my loan. And then if that’s not a possibility, if your money’s locked up somewhere, there’s a principle in trading that you sell when you can, not when you have to. And so a lot of times people will wait until they have to act, and most of the time when you have to act, and it’s your only option on the table, it’s a really bad option. And for whatever reason human nature is that when we have a lot of options, we don’t use them because we don’t feel the urgency to use it. So then we just sit on our hands and wait till things get really bad, and then the only option that we have is really bad. So I always try to keep myself nimble, and always have a lot of options. And if I see those options going down, I’ll make steps to increase the options that I have to move. So sell when you can, not when you have to, is the principle.

DefiZealot 1:31:59
Awesome. Thank you so much.

LUNAomics 1:32:01
Yeah. 0xn, you have your hand up. What’s up?

0xn00b 1:32:06
Hi, guys. Thanks for organizing this Space. I have one question, maybe it’s more for Chad, but maybe it’s a bit off the topic. So if you want to answer it would be great. Is there any particular synergy that you’re excited about between Terra and THORChain that you’re looking for maybe in the next couple of month?

Chad THOReau 1:32:44
Yeah. That feels like a teed up question. There’s a lot to be excited about. I’m a big THORchain…

LUNAomics 1:32:53
You planted him.

Chad THOReau 1:32:57
Thank you. Thank you. You’ve done your job well. No, I’m just kidding. [chuckle] I’m big on both RUNE and LUNA. I think both… I mean LUNA is… We’ve seen the ecosystem flourish, I think RUNE and THORChain, this is gonna be such a crucial make or break year where it’s exciting to watch. But yeah, I mean right now that’s basically happening. So Terra… Last I’ve heard, I mean it should still be live on THORChain, end of this month was the most recent… Of course it could change a little, but what that means is that… So for people that don’t know THORChain, THORChain is a chain that allows cross-chain swaps in a way that is truly decentralized and doesn’t have any problems with economic incentives being misaligned with centralized bridges and stuff like that. So it’s a way to swap from, say, Bitcoin to Ethereum without a centralized exchange, without using wrapped assets, true non-custodial swapping and liquidity pools and all this, but yeah, so Terra is coming to that which is cool. That means there’s going to be LUNA and UST pools on THORChain, but what can be missed about that is it doesn’t just mean that. It actually means that anything that is THORChain integrated is now in the Terra ecosystem. So you’ll be able to swap native Bitcoin to LUNA, or to UST, or you’ll be able to onboard to UST through all these various fiat on-ramps, and then swap straight to any asset.

Chad THOReau 1:34:48
I mean, currently there’s about to be up to six chains that are integrated to THORhain but over time it’ll be every major chain. And yeah, I mean, so that’s the most up and coming thing to be excited about between Terra and THORChain, is that it will be plugged into THORChain, which doesn’t just mean, “Oh, there’s one more thing you can do with LUNA.” It actually means that all these other ecosystems are coming to Terra. So very bullish in both directions, in my opinion. And then in the longer term with THORChain, through all their synthetics coming out and their own lending which will be similar to Anchor but allow for cross-chain. So what that means eventually is perhaps Anchor integrates having a THORChain synthetic Bitcoin as collateral, or anything on THORChain, or even without Anchor you’ll be able to just through THORFi, various apps that are eventually going to come out. Now we’re talking probably 3-6 months out, but that would mean, say, borrowing UST against native Bitcoin, Doge, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, of course, LUNA. Yeah. So a lot of exciting stuff happening there.

LUNAomics 1:36:11
Very cool.

0xn00b 1:36:12
Thanks for this. One small thing, do you see the upgrade of the main net being influential for the raising the caps? Or will that happen anytime soon?

Chad THOReau 1:36:26
Yeah. So this is THORChain specific, and then we can always get back. So the official… Mainnet on THORChain is really just a definition. The current chain running is the mainnet chain, it’s just had this title of ChaosNet, as everything kind of gets worked out. And we’re getting close to where they’ll say, “Okay, yeah, this is officially mainnet mainnet,” even though nothing’s actually being shifted or changed. It’s just like a set definition by a certain criteria. And one of those is to have enough bond, such that there’s… Currently THORChain has kept liquidity for it to scale up in this way that’s economically secure for the cross-chain assets that the nodes secure. Because otherwise, nodes are incentivized to just steal what they’re protecting. So there’s always this amount that’s bonded that’s more than what they are controlling. And so there will always be a soft cap. But the idea is that it won’t be artificially capped as it has been. So it sounds like that’s all coming within the next month or two.

LUNAomics 1:37:31
Very cool. Any other questions?

Abgar 1:37:32
Actually, I’d like to come up if I can.

Chad THOReau 1:37:36
Sure, go ahead.

Abgar 1:37:37
Yeah, because I think that the system for raising hands for somebody who already has been given voice is not working. So this is the reason I’m asking. First of all, huge, huge thank you to Shigeo and Chad for what you’re bringing to the community. It’s my first time actually speaking during those calls. So thanks a lot. And there were a couple of issues raised that maybe we could discuss here. First of all, the bullishness on the overall growth of UST and the ecosystem, and the UST depeg that might be happening. So I’m super bullish on UST especially that we can see that we’re being fathered by MakerDAO and the competitive stablecoins right now, it makes me super bullish because it means that we are being noticed. When it comes to the depeg, when you look at CoinMarketCap, there was a depeg, but when you are following TFL, they’re telling us that there was no depeg, so I think we should be really looking at what’s happening in the Terra ecosystem rather than some kind of external measurement tools. So I wouldn’t be worried that much about the depeg that was present in the last 48 hours, going down to, I don’t know, 97 cents versus dollar or something.

Abgar 1:38:56
And now going into my question/observation of what you said, Shigeo, regarding the the liquidity. So when you guys are increasing your LTV, I think that it cannot be stressed enough what Shigeo said when it comes to being liquid, meaning investing at least a decent amount of those borrowed money into LPs where you can be liquid fast, and to be able to repay your loan, so not to get locked up in too much of a loop, or too much of something that is not removable in a fast way. So that you can act but what really makes me curious, and I think it could help a lot of us in the room here, is what you said, Shigeo, about being able to step away from the table when you were sitting with your wife for three minutes, adjust your position and be in a comfortable space again. So I think it takes not just action, but also some form of pre-planning. I mean, you already know ahead what you might want to liquidate, or let’s say transfer into this reduction of your borrowing on Anchor. So how do you manage this? If you could maybe kind of shed a little bit of light of what your process looks like of being able to pre-plan, what would be liquidating first in order to know it in advance…

LUNAomics 1:40:40
I understand what you’re saying, and one of the things that… You can go back to the risk management tweet in the pinned tweet. So I understand that there’s a lot of new people that have been following this tweet thread and the masterclasses. We’ve put together this whole list of tweets that explain everything from the beginning to end. And so one of the problems that we’re going to have going forward is as more people are jumping on board, we’re going to… To get them up to speed, we don’t want to have to repeat all of the content that we’ve covered in the previous Spaces. So that question is a question from previous content. And I would just encourage everybody who’s here for the first time, there’s a strategy in place, there’s risk management in place, there’s detailed frequently questions and answers that are all in my pinned tweet. So I wanna encourage you to go through that first. Read through those materials, and then you’ll be up to speed with everybody else in the group. And then we… From each other. If you haven’t gone through that, then I would just politely ask you not to ask questions, because then everybody has to listen to the same thing again, so. So please go through the pinned tweets, read through them, jump into the Discord, everybody’s super helpful and wants to get everyone up to speed. So we welcome you to the community and thanks for being a part, and we do want to help you. We’ve put all those resources together to get everyone up to speed, and have a community in the Discord that would go above and beyond to help. So any other questions? And we’ll just take one more question… One or two more questions. And then tomorrow is going to be a really good Space for anyone that has questions on impermanent loss, and how that affects your position, tomorrow’s… I’m really looking forward to tomorrow’s Space.

Through The Looking Glass 1:43:02
Quick question. First of all, thank you all for the great Space. I’ve been following the Spaces, I’m so glad it’s recorded, I think everybody benefits tremendously from that. I think Cephii brought up research that Marie Roth has done on LUNA. And one thing that I got out of it, and I wanted to get your perspective on that, was this elastic to inelastic transition. And what he means by that is, you’re now seeing UST grow, and the market cap is $10.5 billion. It’s great. We’re all excited. But you’re not seeing it be the sole of major factor in kind of controlling or directing the LUNA price, right? It’s still the market cap is a third of the LUNA market cap. And that’s what he calls the elastic region, meaning there are other… Like the Bitcoin price, there are other things, factors that affect the LUNA price. But then he talks about something which I completely agree with from dynamics perspective is, at some point, the UST market cap will get so large, and the demand for UST on various DEXes and exchanges and so on will be so significant that it will be the main factor in the LUNA price, because there will be… So much LUNA would need to be burned for UST. And the question that I have is, and it would be speculative, of course, when would that inflection point happen? At $50 billion? $100 billion? I think a lot of things will change and that will affect a lot of things on Anchor and how you manage risk there.

LUNAomics 1:44:46
That’s a really good question and a really hard question to answer because, honestly, the most simple question that I’ve seen on that is people who are saying, “Why is the price not going up because there’s so much UST that’s being burned?” The UST burn rate only affects… It affects the supply of LUNA, and decreasing the supply of LUNA. But with any kind of price in any kind of market, the supply is only half of the equation, right, there’s the demand. So you can have 1000 iPhones for sale, and say somebody comes in runs over half of them with a truck, and you only have half of the iPhones left. If nobody wants to buy the other half, the price is not going to go up. So the demand side is just as important as the supply side. And they’re both different. So the demand for LUNA… UST because UST is created by the burning of LUNA. So in a way, it is a demand because it needs the LUNA, and it also affects the supply of it.

LUNAomics 1:46:14
And so what I think that they’re saying is that right now, you have exchanges that create a demand for LUNA, you have retail users that are wanting LUNA because they want to utilize the bLUNA part of it, they want LUNA just for speculation. Then you have protocols that want LUNA so that they can provide LunaX, and bLUNA, and yLUNA, and pLUNA, and all these others. So you’re starting to see a greater demand from protocols, from retail investors. Now that we’re in the top 10, you’re going to see a demand from institutional investors. And then you’re going to have a demand from people that are spending UST on debit cards. So there’s all of this demand that’s happening everywhere. But I think what this person is pointing to is that they think that there’s going to come a time where the demand for UST, which will create a burn and a demand for LUNA, will outstrip all other demand. That’s almost impossible. I don’t… You have forex that’s coming out next year. And they’re saying that that forex protocol that is going to demand the UST stablecoin… The forex market is the biggest market that they’re… The demands and the swaps between stablecoins globally. That protocol, if it comes into fruition the way that people are saying it is, that protocol alone will demand $100 billion. If that’s true, and you factor in all these other things that are happening, new protocols that are being developed, us jumping… Maybe being adopted by Greyscale as one of their investments, other hedge funds that are coming into the space that are investing in the top 10 coins, added utilities of LUNA with all these different protocols that are creating derivatives of LUNA. So you’re gonna have demand from every angle. It’s really hard to tell when that inflection point is. But if they’re saying that it’s going to happen, what they’re predicting is that the greatest demand for LUNA will be the demand for UST, which is going to burn it and create a demand for it. So it’s increasing demands of LUNA and also decreasing the supply. It’s like a double… It will affect it two times more than other demand.

Through The Looking Glass 1:49:11
Very helpful. Thank you.

LUNAomics 1:49:12

DeFi crypto 1:49:15
I have one last question if you can LUNAomics.

LUNAomics 1:49:19
Yeah, sure.

DeFi crypto 1:49:19
Yeah, with the release of this new protocol, Prism Protocol, are you thinking maybe trying the strategy of dividing some of your LUNA just in the pLUNA part and double it? Like, you divide a whole LUNA between pLUNA and yLUNA, the one that grabs the yield, and then you just sell the yLUNA and just have double pLUNAs, and that way you double your amount. Are you trying to, I don’t know, separate a couple of LUNAs, don’t enter it into the Anchor bLUNA vault to have it ready for that protocol?

LUNAomics 1:49:23
I’m just gonna have to wait and see what happens with that. Like I said, my whole style of learning is to actually use it. One thing that I am kind of looking forward to with Prism, and I’m sure I’m going to actually use it in some form once they come out, but one of the things that I’m looking forward to is, I think that you… So in trading, there’s an indicator called the VIX. And it’s the volatility index of the S&P 500. And that indicator is kind of like a measurement of fear in the market. And it makes it very easy to pick out bottoms. When fear in the marketplace gets to like 50-80 on the VIX, you’re almost positive, it’s like a 90% chance that you can go long at that point and you’ll make a ton of money. So the VIX is one of my favorite indicators as a trader, and we have nothing like that… Well, I mean, you have the fear metrics between fear and greed, that they provide on Twitter and some other places, but it’s not like a real time… And I don’t even know how to get those metrics. What’s going to be interesting with Prism that I’m looking forward to is you’re going to actually have a metric that measures people’s sentiment in the LUNA market. Because if you’re able to split principle and yield, somebody that’s very bullish, they’re gonna sell their yield component and buy their p component, double up on the p component, because they’re going to want to ride the momentum up. And somebody that is bearish, they’re going to want to get rid of their exposure to price and sell their p and buy the y, just so that they can get double the yield and not be exposed to price at all.

LUNAomics 1:52:27
And so when you have these two instruments for LUNA, it’s going to be a great indicator of the public sentiment of the traders that are in the marketplace. And then when you get to extremes, we’re going to be able to see… So, say, 90% of everybody in the market is bullish, they’re going to be buying… There’s going to be a huge skew to the pLUNA side versus the yLUNA side. And the extremes will mark the tops and bottoms. So after maybe six months to a year of price action, you could measure against the price, you could look at tops and bottoms and measure the skew between pLUNA and yLUNA. And you could kind of map that forward that every single time the pLUNA and yLUNA skew is at a certain point that the market is going to reverse. So that’s kind of what I’m excited about Prism for, is more a market indicator of sentiment that people are backing with their money. And normally if you have a sentiment indicator that’s backed with people’s money, it’s real. And you can actually use it to make better trading decisions. So I’m kind of looking forward to that.

DeFi crypto 1:53:53
Excellent, thank you. It’s like having a VIX but in the LUNA market.

LUNAomics 1:53:56
Yeah. Yeah. And that will be awesome. I think it will help people who understand markets and stuff, be able to trade much better. It’s just another instrument to bring transparency to the market. Okay. Thanks, guys. If you can make it tomorrow, tomorrow we’re going to be meeting, I think it’s at eight o’clock Hawaii Standard Time, and we’re going to be going into impermanent loss. So if you’re interested in understanding impermanent loss better and the metrics around how to limit your losses on the downside and upside in an LP, we’ll be covering that tomorrow. So have a good one.

Chad THOReau 1:54:41
See you guys. This was great.

LUNAomics 1:54:43
And thanks, Chad for co-hosting.

Chad THOReau 1:54:45
Yeah, no problem. See ya.

LUNAomics 1:54:47

Finn 1:54:48
Thanks for checking out another episode of The Ether. That was the LUNAomics Risk Management in Action Space. Recorded on January 7th 2022. This episode of The Ether is brought to you by Luart is the first gamified NFT platform built on the Terra network. Luart provides a seamless minting and trading experience all while earning you rewards just for being a user. Be sure to follow them on Twitter and join the community in the Discord server for the most up to date news and announcements regarding all the hot new NFT launches, platform upgrades, and new projects hitting the secondary marketplace. Are you ready to #PutYourHelmetOn and join the movement? Find out more at TerraSpaces appreciates their support. For, I’m Finn. Thanks for listening.